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December 19

2026 Predictions

Every year, we make predictions. Our missives on 2025, made in October ’24, registered the most direct hits since we first pulled out our Ouija board a decade ago. Our objective isn’t to be right — though that helps — but to inspire a conversation…

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January 3

2025 Predictions

Predictions are a terrible business. If you get it right, the events leading up to the prediction render it less bold. If you get it wrong, you’ll be reminded of your gaffe 10k times a day (i.e., Twitter). The purpose isn’t really to be right,…

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January 5

2024 Predictions

Each year, we review/make predictions re the past/coming year. Most years, we hit more than we miss. But we do miss — if we made 10 predictions that all came true, that wouldn’t be predicting but stating the obvious. The caliber of a prediction is…

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December 30

2023 Predictions

Every year we make predictions. The purpose is to inspire a conversation. We also try to hold ourselves accountable. Here are some of our predictions for 2023. 2023: Patagonia Vest Recession The business story of 2022 was inflation. In 2023 it will be recession, and…

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December 16

2022 Predictions Review

Every year we make predictions for the coming year. We try to get them right, but the real objective is to catalyze a conversation. As I am not the Dark Prince or an alien (either would be fun to roll with in Vegas) I get…

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December 31

2022 Predictions

“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower Making predictions is a shitty business. The events leading up to the realization of any prediction make it seem less extraordinary. And when you get it wrong, you’re an insufferable numbskull. The value of…

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December 29

2021 Predictions & Person of the Year

8-min read There Is No Fate “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” President Eisenhower tweeted that in 1957 (it was a speech, Ed.). The value of a prediction is not accuracy (though it is better to be right than wrong), but the reasoning and…

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January 24

2020 Predictions 🔮

7-min read So, why make predictions? Eisenhower said, “Plans are worthless, but planning is indispensable.” The same is true for predictions — they matter for the strategy and data behind them. Predictions are useless, but scenario planning is invaluable.  Review of 2019 Predictions Snapchat is…

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NMNM January 11

2019 Predictions

I love predictions. Nothing is more certain than the past, nor more uncertain than the future. Similar to a jet launching off an aircraft carrier, predictions ask us to mentally chart a path on the hard surface of the past. We leave the safety of…

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