January 5
Each year, we review/make predictions re the past/coming year. Most years, we hit more than we miss. But we do miss — if we made 10 predictions that all came true, that wouldn’t be predicting but stating the obvious. The caliber of a prediction is…
December 30
Every year we make predictions. The purpose is to inspire a conversation. We also try to hold ourselves accountable. Here are some of our predictions for 2023. 2023: Patagonia Vest Recession The business story of 2022 was inflation. In 2023 it will be recession, and…
December 16
Every year we make predictions for the coming year. We try to get them right, but the real objective is to catalyze a conversation. As I am not the Dark Prince or an alien (either would be fun to roll with in Vegas) I get…
December 31
“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower Making predictions is a shitty business. The events leading up to the realization of any prediction make it seem less extraordinary. And when you get it wrong, you’re an insufferable numbskull. The value of…
December 29
8-min read There Is No Fate “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” President Eisenhower tweeted that in 1957 (it was a speech, Ed.). The value of a prediction is not accuracy (though it is better to be right than wrong), but the reasoning and…
January 24
7-min read So, why make predictions? Eisenhower said, “Plans are worthless, but planning is indispensable.” The same is true for predictions — they matter for the strategy and data behind them. Predictions are useless, but scenario planning is invaluable. Review of 2019 Predictions Snapchat is…
January 11
I love predictions. Nothing is more certain than the past, nor more uncertain than the future. Similar to a jet launching off an aircraft carrier, predictions ask us to mentally chart a path on the hard surface of the past. We leave the safety of…
December 22
2018 Time Person of the Year: Robert Mueller. Chief Justice Roberts swears in Mike Pence as the 46th US President. It's not that the administration colluded with Russia that forces Trump to vacate his shoulder‑season home — several past administrations have cut deals with adversaries…
December 8
The day I wrote these, President-Elect Trump nominated Omarosa Manigault, former contestant on The Apprentice, as an assistant to the president and director of communications for the Office of Public Liaison. Kinda says it all. Anyways, let's reflect on my (in-)ability to predict the future.…
Every Monday, get our insights on Markets. On Wednesdays, we'll answer your questions in Office Hours. And Thursdays we'll share a Conversation - this week, Dan Buettner, a National Geographic Fellow, a longevity researcher, and the best-selling author of “The Blue Zones: Lessons for Living Longer from the People Who've Lived the Longest,” joins Scott to discuss “Blue Zones” and how community, environment, and diet play into longevity. He also tells Scott what decade he might make it to based on how he currently lives his life.
