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December 22

Predictions for 2018

2018 Time Person of the Year: Robert Mueller. Chief Justice Roberts swears in Mike Pence as the 46th US President. It's not that the administration colluded with Russia that forces Trump to vacate his shoulder‑season home — several past administrations have cut deals with adversaries…

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December 8

Revisiting 2017 Predictions

The day I wrote these, President-Elect Trump nominated Omarosa Manigault, former contestant on The Apprentice, as an assistant to the president and director of communications for the Office of Public Liaison. Kinda says it all. Anyways, let's reflect on my (in-)ability to predict the future.…

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November 21

The Next Opioid Crisis

Today you can “trade” on the outcome of thousands of future events, from the Fed decision next month to the Grammy Awards in February. Without leaving the house, you can wager on Taylor Swift’s wedding or Time magazine’s person of the year. One of Kalshi’s…

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October 31

Big Tech Stock Pick of 2026: Amazon

At the end of every year, I pick a Big Tech stock I believe will outperform its peers in the coming year. My 2025 pick was Alphabet: I believed the market had overestimated the threats to Google’s search businesses by AI and antitrust. At the…

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June 27

The Grown-Up Tax Bill

Next week the Republican-led Congress plans to move President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill one step closer to law. The most recent CBO analysis factoring in interest rates, inflation, and economic growth put the cost to $2.8 trillion. Democrats have criticized the bill but haven’t offered…

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January 31

Addiction Economy

Hair of the Dawg It’s the final day of Dry January. I tried it, didn’t last. I’m now drinking (again) like a Pan Am pilot in the seventies. Anyway, the 22% of U.S. adults who abstained from alcohol this month will get a personality upgrade…

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December 6

Media Consolidation

The hottest product in tech is Bluesky, adding 1 million users a day since the election. CEO Jay Graber says the platform will never have ads, as ads are the road to “enshittification.” OK then. Ad-supported media, as a whole, is one of the least…

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October 25

Endorsement: Vice President Kamala Harris

The Last Swing Voters The catastrophizing, from both sides, re “The end of America” if s/he wins is obnoxious and recognizes neither history nor the resilience of the U.S. We’ve survived much worse than her/him. However, it’s clear that, as in any election, some groups…

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October 18

Tesla WTF

The most impressive, and unimpressive, product displays of 2024 occurred last week — from companies headed by the same person. The largest booster rocket ever assembled was called back to terra by gravity; then, as it approached the Earth’s surface, engines ignited that navigated the…

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