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No Mercy No Malice

2021 Predictions & Person of the Year

December 29, 2020

8-min read

There Is No Fate

“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” President Eisenhower tweeted that in 1957 (it was a speech, Ed.). The value of a prediction is not accuracy (though it is better to be right than wrong), but the reasoning and conversation that the prediction catalyzes. Predictions can also be self-fulfilling prophecies, as the best way to predict the future is to make it … and predictions can make it (the future). After last year’s predictions, seven Fortune 100 CEOs came to me for advice. Or maybe they thought if I saw what great guys they were, I’d be less critical of them or their firm … But I digress.

We have been predicting/evangelizing/pimping big investments in recurring revenue businesses — what I call “rundles.” A great rundle (e.g., Amazon Prime) requires multiple product lines, robust tech infrastructure, and the stomach/capital to endure staggering losses in EBITDA and be recast as a subscription-based firm valued at a multiple of revenues. The path to a rundle is a useful lens through which to evaluate a firm’s product strategy, upgrade cycle, churn, pricing, value drivers, etc. I understand Apple, AT&T/CNN, Disney, Walmart, and other rundle-emergent companies better now that I’ve viewed them through that lens — and their leadership does as well.

Note: After reading the previous two paragraphs, my observation is that I leave 2020 as I entered it: desperate for other people’s affirmation and rabidly insecure. Anyway.

Predictions are more fun when you’re right (Amazon acquiring Whole Foods, WeWork implosion, and Quibi DOA). However, it’s likely more illuminating to revisit your misses (Tesla). How was I so spectacularly wrong on that firm? Likely because I ignored a trusted maxim: Never bet against a company with a great product. But on a deeper level, I had not appreciated the power of what my colleague Aswath Damodaran calls “story stocks,” and the influence a good story can have on valuations. 

Looking back at predictions is so useful (done rigorously, it’s called the “scientific method”) that we incorporate it into our annual Predictions presentation. I don’t love revisiting my mistakes (though I’m still pumped for the incoming Bloomberg/Buttigieg administration), but doing so can lubricate the rails of your reasoning. We often project as much as we predict, tasking the future with our own hopes and fears. Reviewing predictions, whether they were right or wrong, provides insight into ourselves.  

Ok, enough of that bulls**t … let’s look at an abridged set of our 2021 predictions.

2021: Less Terrible

2021 will be about the macro trend that is driving the most change in our lives and the market: The Great Dispersion. Dispersion is the distribution of products and services over a wider area where and when they’re needed most, bypassing gatekeepers and removing unnecessary friction and cost. This year, companies bypassed traditional channels of distribution like stores, movie theaters, and gyms in favor of faster, contactless deliveries and digital unlocks. In many ways, this was a blessing — we saved time and reduced our exposure to the virus. Yet dispersion also risks isolating us and in turn, suppressing our empathy, which could have profound negative consequences. 

Similar to the virus, dispersion is indifferent to our wants. That said, we can plan for it — and the planning is everything. Here are some of the impacts of dispersion I see in 2021.  

Resto Becomes a $1000 Stock and Sonos Hits $40

Working from home is the dispersal of work. Covid-19 has mobilized a trillion-dollar reallocation of capital from commercial to residential real estate. The capital and time we once committed to offices and commuting will pour into home improvement. The carpet that looked sad and old pre-pandemic is now intolerable, and your TV is not complete without a Sonos sound beam. Both plywood costs and residential real estate market prices have hit all-time highs, and will continue to ascend.

Airbnb Hits $200/share and Gets Into Short-Term Office Space

Hospitality is dispersing — from a few destinations to many, from hotel towers to individual rooms — and value is shifting from from asset-heavy hotel companies to the network-based Airbnb. Airbnb is a juggernaut. It has the strongest brand in hospitality (nobody says, “I got an Expedia in Austin”), a deep moat (seven million rooms worldwide), impressive human resources in design and technology, and a greater percentage of engineers than many other “tech” companies. 

The next phase in Airbnb’s strategic evolution is already in sight, courtesy of the pandemic. As knowledge workers come back to the office after a year of working from home, they won’t want to give up their newfound flexibility. The rise of gig workers, freelancers, and remote work will drive a surge in what we used to call coworking, and Airbnb is best positioned to get in front of these trends.

Walmart Goes Deeper into Healthcare via Acquisition

The dispersion of healthcare will be among the most exciting and disruptive transitions of stakeholder value in history. Our healthcare in this country is shameful. We spend more, but have worse outcomes. Healthcare in America is like living in San Francisco: expensive, but bad. 

There’s trillions of dollars in opportunity here. Amazon and Walmart are moving into this space through acquisition, thereby fighting the largest proxy war in the business world: healthcare. Walmart has the scale and incentive to make an impact, as well as some inherent advantages over Amazon. Rural Americans are closer on average to a Walmart than to a hospital, and as the largest private employer in the world, Walmart’s healthcare costs are its biggest expense after wages. The Bentonville firm already operates primary care clinics where an adult can get a physical for $30; it acquired Carezone, a prescription management app, in June. Look out for more. 

Bitcoin Surpasses $50,000

The dispersion of money might some day make the rest of these trends look tiny. Bitcoin-boosters believe the cryptocurrency could restructure global finance and politics. It is a potential hedge against inflation, it provides a safer haven for wealth in unstable economies, and its institutional acceptance and infrastructure continues to strengthen. 

Global currencies command massive value. The world’s gold supply is worth over $9 trillion, and over $19 trillion is held in U.S. dollars. That value is leaking into bitcoin — investors have traded out of gold as bitcoin has gone on its recent run. Right now, the total bitcoin supply has a value of around $400 billion. Even as an alternative currency with limited application, it likely has a lot of upside. Think about Bitcoin as if it were a company, and the value of coins in circulation were its market cap. $400 billion suggests equivalence with Johnson & Johnson … that feels undervalued. For many investors, the Fear-of-Being-an-Idiot factor (FOBI™) will inspire purchases, just in case it goes to $1 million.

Which. It. Could. 

Robinhood Is the New Menace

Bitcoin may become a pillar of the world economy. However, at present, it’s a speculative investment. And speculative investments are the cancer in the cloud of dispersion that’s creating systemic risk in the securities trading business. There is some upside to getting more people more access to financial instruments, but there’s also a ton of downside risk. 2021 is the year that a new firm joins Uber, Lyft, and Facebook in the Menace Economy (the pursuit of wealth at the expense of other human beings). That menace is online trading app Robinhood.

In contrast to rivals such as Charles Schwab that encourage investing, Robinhood gamifies trading. Gambling addiction doesn’t depend on green felt and free drinks; today, boredom and a smartphone is enough.  

Why would they do that? At Robinhood, users aren’t customers, they’re products. More specifically, their trades are the product, which Robinhood sells to market makers. The more their users trade, the more money Robinhood makes. And Robinhood users make a lot of trades — 9 times more trades than E-Trade users, 40 times more than Schwab users (88 times more options trades) relative to account size — a rate that makes no sense for the young, non-wealthy, and inexperienced traders flocking to the platform. But it makes great sense for Robinhood, which makes more money selling those orders than it could educating people re the wisdom of low-cost index funds, and occasional buy-and-hold company stocks. That is, it makes sense for the collision of idolatry of money, weakened regulatory institutions, and young-adult depression that is Robinhood.

Regulators including Finra, the SEC, and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts have levied fines or initiated actions against the company for mistreating its users, but at a $11 billion private market valuation, with a $20 billion IPO expected soon, Robinhood investors have done the math and decided the smart thing to do is to ignore the law, as well as any incidental depression and suicide.

Full disclosure: I f**king hate Robinhood.

2021 Time Person of the Year: The Founder of Amazon 

Let’s end on a positive note. Something else that is getting dispersed in 2021? Philanthropy. Leading the charge is one of history’s most successful entrepreneurs: MacKenzie Scott, who doesn’t get the recognition she deserves for her role in founding Amazon. In 2020, Ms. Scott gave away over $4 billion, quietly and efficiently, getting the money to people on the ground who could use it to make an impact right away. Contrast her data-driven, results-oriented approach with the transactional/RFP/naming rights testosterone that accompanies most billionaire giving, and we are brought back to the essence of … “Giving.” 

Will others also decide Ms. Scott the person of the year? Or might this prediction inspire more giving and remind us that being American means a lot of things, not the least of which is … generosity. Ms. Scott, with her innovation and approach to giving, has made America burn brighter. We predict she makes our country a better place. Indeed, she already has, and for that, MacKenzie Scott is our 2020 Person of the Year.

Life is so rich,

P.S. For all my 2021 predictions, watch a recording of our livestream presentation here. And … I’ve condensed my 2nd-year MBA Brand Strategy class into a 3-week intensive learning experience: the Brand Strategy Sprint. 94% of the people who took the last one said it had a positive impact on their professional development and 88% said they learned something they could immediately implement in their work. I’d say that’s a good investment.

87 comments

  1. MARIO MORALES says:

    The best president in the history of Brasil should be the next Person of the Year, Jair Messias Bolsonaro. Please consider this Christian, patriot, and tireless worker for the future of his homeland as Time’s person of the year. Muito Obrigado.

  2. Brian says:

    Any form of investing that values, as Scott puts it, “the pursuit of wealth at the expense of other human beings” is gambling in my book and inherently wrong. Bitcoin does not have a “good story” though it may have some redeemable features. I’m investing to support good products and great companies. It makes no sense to teach “young, non-wealthy, inexperienced traders” to value money over education and long term value investments.

  3. David W Rundle says:

    Here is a prediction, the Great Rundle, finally is revealed

  4. Emmanuel says:

    Fantastic call, please can you make a revised prediction for the rest of the year? Thanks

  5. Ted H says:

    Yep. Couldn’t agree more with your McKenzie Scott shout out as well. Compared to Ballmer, The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, etc; she isn’t just turning her annual tax write off into an excuse to get dressed up to the nines and have charitable donors kiss her ass.

  6. chris says:

    stunning how accurate you were

  7. John says:

    Scott after growing up and watching your YouTube videos in high school, what a relief it is to find my way back. You 100% called robinhood. The upshot is people like me have now started their long term investment plans. I grew up during the crash so I have been too scared to put in before. Now that I’m in it all clicks. Long term growth and dollar cost investing. With an ear to the floor listening for what’s new, real, and gripping. Don’t worry about Tesla. If I had any capital back in your YouTube days I’d be doing pretty dang well following your advice.

  8. Pussy Galore says:

    I bet you didn’t predict your speaking career would end with one dipshit tweet.

  9. Yad says:

    Brilliant and loved reading. Thanks for educating and helping us see through a different lens. You could easily be CMO and hope Kraft Heinz CEO consults with you to help reshape his Branding strategy

  10. Wenze says:

    Awesome summary. I love your content!

  11. mike bushore says:

    First class mind, first class wisdom, outstandingly fresh in perspective. Thank you for sharing so much with so many.

  12. Carlos says:

    Thank you for a great article! It made my day much brighter!!!!! THANK YOU

  13. John H says:

    Excellent thoughts….

  14. Chris Wolpert says:

    2021 bring it on.

  15. Stephen Ettinger says:

    really nice to hear fresh ideas Scott. investor and Business Person for 40 years. Watched in Horror as the Industry I was in was vaporized, (Printing, Book Publishing), and Media Manufacturing. Twice knocked down in these industries. Seems like as the world goes digital and becomes more self reliant on someone else doing everything for us – Including delivering meals to our doorstep, America is getting fatter, more unhealthy, and shortening our life span. The poor eat worse ( More fast food) exponentially expanding the bloated wast lines of Millions. We should encourage taking the excesses of our Dairy, Fruits and Vegetables, and whole grains and make it a point of donating to families of need. We should encourage every child to take a nutrition class in K-12, and college to expand the education of eating right, hence expanding the length of life to more based upon a learned share of values spread equally across all people in America. Eating well should not be a class issue. Not in America. – Loved your Lecture. Long term slow investor. thank you

  16. Fred Schnurr says:

    Good Stuff. I’m glad Witney put me on to you.

  17. BeeKay says:

    Regarding POTY selection for the USA, imho, it’s a tie between Ms. Scott and Ms. Stacy Abrams.

  18. Ben O’Connor says:

    Amazing! Thanks Prof G. The only time I shift uncomfortably is when it felt like a celebration of war to talk about the pandemic, when public health innovation is a celebration all on its own. But sitting in London just now, with talk of hospitals being over whelmed, I think you were just ahead of the curve, as ever. Sure feels like war now. Thanks for all the effort and insight. It’s always fresh and close to the source. Thanks!

  19. Gokulram Arunasalam says:

    AirBNB fundamentally makes sense but how does one think about valuation. Gokulram Arunasalam

  20. Bruce Livett says:

    Thanks for your insight and predictions for 2021. Here’s hoping it IS less terrible than 2020, and that many hear the call to vaccinate. As a post-polio survivor from the 1940’s I know the life lasting benefits of vaccination. If we have learned anything from last year it is that more caring, more empathy for our fellow citizens is the way forward.

  21. Gabriel Gallegos says:

    Enlightening and entertaining.

  22. Robin Raskin says:

    I’ve been fascinated by “the splinterization” of the Internet. Discord, Substack — will we see more of these communities? Do you see the benefit? Downside or more of the same? Love reading your stuff. Fingers crossed for AirBnB to do what you say

  23. Paul Blanchard says:

    Props to you on naming MacKenzie Scott person of the year. Her contribution to humanity needs to be acknowledged broadly after the news cycle has forgotten. Perhaps it will inspire others. Re: Bitcoin & Prof G podcast episode 40, M. Saylor presented massive inflation as a reality without providing any grounding. Is he on a “pump and dump” campaign for Bitcoin? See New Republic Jan 1 article on Mr. Saylor and his company.

  24. Dino C says:

    Great read Prof. But ABNB reaching 200 is not enough for a prediction.

  25. Dino C says:

    Either WM or AMZN will buy ONEM

  26. Preeti Ranadive says:

    Thank you, enjoyed your insights! Great pick for “person of the year”, loved the analogy for healthcare and living in SF!

  27. Justin Yan says:

    I was first introduced to you through PIVOT in January 2020, and I look forward to all your insights every single week! Thanks for an incredible year Scott.

  28. Sonja Winther says:

    THANK YOU for your outstanding insights and research, written succinctly and with humor/entertainment. LOVE your ‘Person of the Year’ choice – couldn’t agree more.

  29. Peter Blackshaw says:

    Thanks, Scott, for another year of outstanding (and often unsettling) year insight. Your “Person of the Year” is spot-on! Also really enjoying your latest book. Perfectly timed! -pete

  30. Sarah says:

    Thank you for your kind words on MacKenzie Scott’s giving and for not referring to her as “Jeff Bezos’ ex-wife.” She is her own person (very accomplished in her own right) and deserves to be acknowledged as such. Anyone who doubts her contributions to Amazon wishes to remain ignorant as there are many articles about it and its even on her Wikipedia page.

  31. Nonoy Quimbo says:

    Good insight

  32. Dmitriy says:

    If we can use a group of people as a “person of the year” I don’t really know how healthcare workers are NOT person of the year in 2021. Mackenzie Scott gave away a lot of money that will hopefully make a lot of impact. But the cost of her doing so was minimal compared to the effort, energy and sacrifice of the healthcare workers worldwide. Also, agree with another commentator: I would like to know her role in the founding of Amazon. I don’t want to diminish her role as a wife to the founder. I am sure she had to suffer through a lot, but I wouldn’t over-exaggerate this role either.

    • Stacy Johnson says:

      In 1993, Scott and Bezos were married, and in 1994, they both left D. E. Shaw, moved to Seattle, and started Amazon. Scott was one of Amazon’s first employees, and was heavily involved in Amazon’s early days, working on the company’s name, business plan, accounts and shipping early orders.[4][8] She also negotiated the company’s first freight contract.[8]

    • Bruce The Blog says:

      Since exaggerate means to overstate, I guess you wouldn’t want to over-overstate her role, and it’s heartening to know you also would not “want to diminish her role as a wife to the founder.” Wow. Hello. It’s 2021. Which year of the Ice Age are you frozen in?

  33. Lokesh says:

    Thanks Scott for another good article. 1. I would guess hotels can also get into short term co-working – rooms have everything including attached bathroom and sometimes a small kitchen as well. Bring your own coffee and food, and you don’t need to be in contact with anyone. I saw this starting to happen in India already. 2. Walmart has local presence, has pharmacies, optical and sometimes clinics. So getting into health care delivery (vaccinations, wellness) is a good use of physical space (along with delivery warehouses).

  34. Aalap says:

    Please check out Letswork in UAE. It’s a prime business model for AirBnB to acquire / emulate.

  35. MilesT says:

    I would class AirBnB in the menace class due to the way it exploitatively abstracts city centre properties from circulation as long term dwellings and raises prices for the remaining housing stock. This also has community deadening effects. Even if the host is also in residence this is still a bad outcome as the same room could be let long term For AirBnB to redeem themselves they need to pivot to leasing whole franchise hotels and debranding them, moving them to a low service dispersed economy model (e.g. renting out catering space). Somewhat like traditional European package vacation companies (which have often sold room+on site services without the flight/transfer, if you asked them to)

    • Georgeq says:

      It also makes the city more accessible to tourists, which flows thru to more money for small businesses. And the local owners managing the airbnbs are getting extra income. So it cuts both ways. Not discounting that there is an increase in rental prices because of it, but would your rather be a city like Detroit with cheap rent and no economic activity or like NYC?

  36. Shaun says:

    Great post Scott! This is why I joined. Less schilling for the tenure board at Columbia and more finance and tech. We get it. You’re Woke you’re in the club. You are such an insightful voice on finance and tech. Im here to make money. I can watch Don Lemon later. #LiberalNotCrazy Happy New Year.

  37. JB Myanmar says:

    Don’t become the new Dennis Miller, please. Bad career move. Still interesting + entertaining. But too much glib (bad carbs) and dropping on the analysis (lean protein). At risk of morphing into the Dennis Miller and Jim Cramer love child. Resto? What the hell is that? Love the Dispersion chart though Scott. Still brilliant.

  38. KKE says:

    BNB can be a target of regulators if it grows too big and starts to look, smell, and act like hotels but are not subject to the same regulation, taxes, and oversight.

  39. Chris says:

    Walmart just hired Dr. Cheryl Pegus to be their CMO. She’s smart and understands healthcare at every level. If Walmart lets her, she’s going to revolutionize how healthcare is delivered to their customers. I’d watch and see what Amazon does in acquisitions. Doc-in-a-Box outfits like ZoomCare+ have all the contracts and certifications and such that can be grandfathered to new ownership. This allows Amazon to make a splash immediately without having to go through the mess and politics of state licensing. There exist any number of regulators or politicians who’d love to make a name for themselves by gumming up big, bad Amazon in a protracted fight, especially on camera. As always, watch their job postings. Bezos is building a woodchipper big enough to handle any insurer or health system of their choosing. Bentonville has a huge lead, but Seattle has the cash to pass them in one morning.

  40. k dillon says:

    Not to be a cynic or not that I don’t believe you named Makenzie Scott as your POY, because I believe it to a noble pick, but could the fact that she is newly un -attached bear any relevance to your wise pick, if I had your forum, I may have done the same

  41. Seth Goldstein says:

    Scott thank you for all your insights on Pivot and everywhere else. I have truly enjoyed learning from you over this crazy year.

  42. Jane Janzen says:

    Um, McKenzie Bezos did not “found Amazon”. – c/mon this is the narcissistic self aggrandizing nonsense you keep writing. Does anyone really believe this? This is such a pandering to the far left nonsense…she became one of the richest women in the world via a divorce. I think dumb people think that’s not politically correct to acknowledge you know…REALITY. It’s easier to create fake narratives and now we have to glorify her as like the developer for AWS and genius behind amazon and come up with afake “woman empowerment” narrative to satisfy the woke east coast people. Please stop and get your critical thinking back. It’s exhausting how much your association with Kara swisher continues to negatively impact your logic and critical analysis. Bring old Scott back…

    • Stacy Johnson says:

      In 1993, Scott and Bezos were married, and in 1994, they both left D. E. Shaw, moved to Seattle, and started Amazon. Scott was one of Amazon’s first employees, and was heavily involved in Amazon’s early days, working on the company’s name, business plan, accounts and shipping early orders. She also negotiated the company’s first freight contract.

  43. KEVIN says:

    RESTO went over my head, what does it stand for and how will it be a 1000$ stock, forgive my ignorance

  44. Dave says:

    Scott I wish you nothing but success in 2021. You have made 2020 so much more enjoyable because of your human nature. Your sense of humor, vulnerability and truly thoughtful analysis makes you my Panademic Person of the Year. Can’t tell you how much joy I get from listening to your podcasts and reading your blog. Please stay safe and know you have made a big impact on my life this year.

  45. Penn Manning says:

    Just today Biden declared his intention to invoke the Defense Production Act to commandeer private industry to bend to his supply-chain management expertise. Think: US Postal Service Christmas delivery. 2021 will bring less freedom and liberty to Americans.

  46. Laure says:

    I appreciate your thinking and also will admit that the first thought I had upon reading this was ‘I need to go on Robinhood and buy Bitcoin.’ ¯_(ツ)_/

  47. Philip says:

    Happy New Year, Mr. Galloway and thanks for your writing, always.

  48. Frank C. says:

    You might hate RobinHood, but like many things in life, you get out of it what you put into it. In this case, if you use it for investing in solid companies and use the buy-and-hold strategy, you can use it as a normal investment tool. RH is no different from any of the other online stock apps, but is simpler to use. Also, there is so much FREE information for beginner investors available today that anyone can learn the right way to start investing, if people would only take the time to educate themselves.

  49. ronald sorenson says:

    I appreciate your “plain speaking”.

  50. Paul M says:

    Mackenzie Scott only appears to be a breath of fresh air after all the billionaires and their 24% effective tax rates have sucked the oxygen out of the room. What could be big in 2021 (although frankly, more likely 2023)? Actual progressive taxation. The rich in America used to pay an *effective tax rate* (that’s the key term you need to focus on) of closer to 35%. The carried interest and Section 1202 loopholes (ask your favorite VC how they work) have made a mockery of how wealth is extracted from society (not created) and we have our current state of affairs to show for it. TLDR: Mackenzie Scott seems like a generous person. LET’S TAX the billionaires instead so we can all decide what gets fixed, rather than just her deciding.

    • Jane jons says:

      You obviously are repeating dumb talking points and have never actually researched this. Nearly 40% of Americans pay ZERO federal income taxes. The top 1% of earners pay 40% of all the taxes. So next time some poorly informed dumb person talks about “equality” with regard to taxes, take a look at actual numbers and facts…not democratic talking points (that are incorrect).

    • Paul M says:

      Congrats on cherry-picking your taxes. Working people pay regressive payroll taxes on their first dollar of earnings. Payroll taxes amount to 36% of federal revenue compared to 50% from income taxes: that’s a big elephant in the room you’re ignoring. Since the top 1% hold 15x the wealth of the bottom 50% I could infer fairly from your statement they are *under taxed.* https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-are-sources-revenue-federal-government

    • Mike says:

      @Paul M Thank You!

  51. David W Crow says:

    Scott: I don’t think you missed Tesla. Tesla is now trading at a p/e of 1300! And, its market value is now greater than all of the other auto manufacturers combined. How could Tesla ever have enough volume to produce enough profit to rationalize its ultra-high price?

  52. Shatterhand says:

    Bitcoin worries me a lot. Too much opportunity for legerdemain.

  53. Dave says:

    “Will others also decide Ms. Scott the person of the year?” No. TIME magazine will anoint – of all people – Joe and Kamala as Persons of the Year. How proud they must be of their choice. Does Ms. Scott deserve it more for her philanthropy? Or perhaps any…ANY…of our Veterans returning from Afghanistan. And on and on. Heroes are around us every day. Unsung Americans doing their jobs and providing for their families and beyond. Patriots. See President Ronald Reagan, Inaugural Speech, Jan 20, 1980.

  54. Dr.bert shlensky says:

    Great article . However i believe we are missing some other key parameters in understanding forecasting ,growth and innovation etc. These include the realization that we can afford more risk as a result of changing factors like low interest rates and inflation. For example financial advisors continue to recommend more bonds than stocks which have underperformed for the last several years . In contrast they do not focus enough as you describe on the innovation , structure ,and culture of tech companies which are having incredible impacts .

  55. Mark Hayes says:

    I appreciate the fact that you a) publish your predictions and b) do a better job of owning the mistakes than most. Would that our leaders and politicians do the same. Happy New Year.

  56. Dave says:

    RH is a core holding of Berkshire, so you are probably right. Airbnb will become a core holding of Berkshire if the stock pulls back (if Berkshire hasn’t already purchased into it on the IPO (but didn’t disclose yet.)). As for Bitcoin, pure speculation. Could go sky high or could crash. No intrinsic value. Gold, at least, is gold and can’t be replicated. Bitcoin is just one of thousands of crypto’s (which happens to have more demand than supply at the moment), but nothing stopping anyone from creating more (limited production) crypto’s. You should have at least advised your audience to be careful and only use money they could afford to lose. And as for MacKenzie Scott, I love her. Jeff was a fool. Beautiful and generous – what a combination!

    • ez says:

      Don’t discount bitcoin. It stands apart from other cryptos due to its ability to be digital hard money & the decentralized infrastructure of miners/processors that have been built over the last decade. Bitcoin supply is limited, similar to gold. But it sure is a hell of a lot easier to buy and own bitcoin than gold. I would highly recommend learning more about it before discounting it. Ars technica just released a really good primer on it. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/12/how-bitcoin-works/

  57. JK says:

    Bitcoin is an asset bubble, not a hedge against inflation. A fiat “currency” cannot be a hedge against a depreciating dollar, only money can– read gold– and other commodities. I do agree that it may hit $50k by the end of next year, but only because it is the supreme asset bubble, that will benefit, as all bubbles do, from the fed’s reckless monetary policy. Investors are flocking to Bitcoin because they want maximum risk and the reward that can come with it. It is not a safe haven.

  58. Bob J says:

    Would love to hear a China related prediction, if you have one in you. Xi and Ma, Xi and Cook, Xi and Dimon…… Lopping a $trillion off of healthcare processing and the college cartels would be a nice productivity improvements. Student loan usury deserves a #metoo moment. Equality through education.

  59. Gene Joly says:

    Thank you Scott – as always – for expanding my thinking and keeping it fun every step of the way. The shout out to Mackenzie Scott’s well-designed philanthropy is richly deserved. She is an inspiration and is on her way to becoming a role model. Crossing fingers and toes for Bounceback ‘21.

  60. Suzie Kidder says:

    Mr. Galloway … you really appear to be a thoroughly delightful human being. You have a wicked sense of humor, a lovely way with a word or phrase, and I”m learning a lot from reading your posts. Happy New Year, Be Well, Keep Comforting the Afflicted & Afflicting the Comfortable ..

  61. Willliam Bloom says:

    BRAVO…. I don’t always agree with your politics, but this was spot on- especially your POY pick.

  62. Robert Sterbal says:

    Any chance of starting a Facebook group in 2021? Another social media group?

    • Suzie Kidder says:

      Oh please NO. I hate Facebook – the business model is toxic and its management is either stupid or criminal. Based on its corporate “culture” and observed behavior .. those are the only two choices … Let’s keep our conversations OFF of Facebook.

    • Seth Goldstein says:

      @Suzie Kidder I agree. A FB group is not the place to be. Maybe a Discourse Forum or a Circle forum.

  63. Mike says:

    Hyatt is larger than Wyndham and Choice (not included on your chart). Also, nice to see some Robinhood employees and shareholders have stopped by the comment section

  64. Darren says:

    Robinhood makes trading stocks easier and cheaper than any other platform – it shouldn’t surprise anyone that when you make trading easier and cheaper you will get more of it. And there is nothing wrong with young people taking risks – if anything it should be expected that a trading platform with a younger demographic would have riskier investment patterns. When you’re young you can afford to take risks and lose money.

  65. Bob Armour says:

    I empathize with your perspective on Robinhood. However, if you’re going to include a full disclosure statement, shouldn’t you include this too: Social Investing App Public.com Secures Seven Figure Investment From Business Professor and Entrepreneur Scott Galloway (BusinessWire Aug 25, 2020)

  66. Bob Pons says:

    I have to believe Marriot is working on a platform that will compete directly against Airbnb, the homeowner (hosts) will become a Marriot franchise or certified. The host home will be outfitted with Marriot style towels, sheets, etc. And guests will get Marriot points and feel better/safer staying in a Marriot version of Airbnb, when announced Airbnb’s market cap will suffer.

    • Mike says:

      It already exists. It has a very meek offering and has been around at least a year. It’s called Marriott Homes and Villas.

  67. Jeff Berman says:

    Return to commuting is likely to explode podcast listenership. The move from linear (radio) to on-demand (podcasts) will mirror what’s happened in video at an accelerated pace. Add the value to advertisers of what is functionally the only “single screen” media experience outside of gaming and with a trusted voice literally in the listener’s ear recommending a product/service and the podcast market is poised to take off in the back half of 2021. Also, would expect to see consolidation in personal fitness/health/quantified self. Every reason to expect Peloton, Apple, and Google especially to be looking at companies like Strava, Oura, and Whoop.

  68. Kasper says:

    Hey Scott. I’ve been looking forward to reading your 2021 predictions since you posted your 2020 predictions last year 🎉. I’ve been thinking some of them myself, like walmart making a bigger push into medicine, especially pharmaceuticals and that airbnb should enter short term office rentals. I also think you’ll be right about Tesla eventually, like the saying goes “the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” However over the last year or so ive noticed that you’re starting to bring your political leanings and distaste of certain leaders and to an extent anti capitalist views into your writing. In my mind this diminishes the otherwise sharp writing from your previous work. Ive read the four and i recently purchased your new book post corona and I’m looking forward to reading it however i think you’re starting to negatively affect your own work through overemphasizing and overselling your political views. Obviously this is just one man’s opinion and I’ll continue to purchase your books as i enjoy your thought process! Happy New Year!

  69. K Robosn says:

    People may not say that got an Expedia, but they definitely say they got a VRBO.

  70. N Baker says:

    Hope the real Robinhoods win like Ms Scott in 2021.

  71. Pinner says:

    Bravo, Ms. Scott!