2024 Predictions
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Audio Recording by George Hahn
Each year, we review/make predictions re the past/coming year. Most years, we hit more than we miss. But we do miss — if we made 10 predictions that all came true, that wouldn’t be predicting but stating the obvious. The caliber of a prediction is a function of what it reveals about the subject, how it frames or reframes a familiar topic, and whether it inspires a productive dialogue. Here’s how we did in 2023, followed by our predictions for 2024.
And our predictions for 2024…
U.S. Inflation Drops Below the Fed’s Target of 2.5%
One year ago, Bloomberg’s economic model calculated the probability of a recession at 100%. At Prof G, we predicted inflation would come down as fast as it had accelerated. Our thesis was simple: When the world predicts a disaster, it doesn’t materialize, because we make a concerted effort to prevent it. Call it the Y2K Theory.
I thought this was a no-brainer. Dartmouth economist Danny Blanchflower has highlighted that well-run modern economies don’t experience sustained inflation, as inflation cures itself … so to speak. (High prices quell demand, which lowers prices.) In addition, the supply chain is getting un-gunked, and we have a gangster Fed chairman who took pleasure in ignoring pressure from Senator Warren and others to keep rates low. Finally, I believe AI — like most technologies — is deflationary, as it helps firms do more with less. In a little over a year, inflation has gone from 9% to 3%. Look for this downward momentum to continue. Time’s Person of the year was Taylor Swift, but the most consequential person of the year was Chairman Powell.
Housing Sales Boom
When tectonic plates shift, the main shock is followed by aftershocks in outlying areas. The tectonic shift of the past two years was interest rates, which climbed faster than in any period in U.S. history. Now that the fight appears to be (almost) over, the plates are readjusting: Last month the Fed signaled it would cut rates in 2024.
We’re in for a series of aftershocks, and the most consequential will occur in housing. In the past 40 years, we’ve experienced a doubling in housing prices, while household income has risen just 20%. In 2024 expect to see a boom in housing sales volume.
The runup in housing prices has been a perfect storm of choked volume: Low interest rates on existing mortgages have locked people in, people are living longer, Nimbyism has restricted new construction, and household earnings aren’t keeping pace with housing prices. The result: Home ownership is increasingly sequestered to the olds. Housing in America over the past four decades has been a proxy for economic policies writ large, a concerted transfer of wealth from young to old. Reduced interest rates, coupled with pent-up demand (new jobs, kids, life events), will drop like prunes through the colon of housing in 2024.
State legislatures and zoning boards have (sort of) gotten the memo that more housing is desperately needed. Unemployment is low, and young workers are facing historically strong prospects. A sweetener? The real estate agent cartel might finally break, reducing transaction costs for buyers and sellers.
Paramount Consolidated, Disney Consolidator
We presented this in our Predictions livestream on December 12, and, less than a month later, it’s already happening. News broke before Christmas that Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav had met with Paramount CEO Bob Bakish regarding a merger. This trend will continue — watch for any streaming service that isn’t owned by WBD, Netflix, or Disney to be acquired in the coming year. Continued viability in streaming will be a function of scale: In the midst of a writers’ strike, which you’d think would put pressure on studios, Netflix raised prices. The strike was a transfer of wealth from the traditional studios to NFLX, and it has expedited market dynamics: consolidation and rationalization across the number of players and spend, respectively.
Two Stock Picks: Streaming Laggards
Every year I make stock picks — a bad idea, but it’s fun. Last year I picked Airbnb, Meta, and Chinese internet stocks, which rose 60%,180%, and -15% respectively. My thesis wasn’t that these companies would do anything extraordinary. Rather, the market had soured on them (especially Meta), forgetting that the existing businesses are cash volcanoes.
My stock picks this year are Warner Brothers Discovery and Disney, because the tech sector, in my view, is fully valued (Latin for overvalued). Tech’s P/E multiples look frighteningly similar to 1999 and 2007. This year I like distressed assets, and DIS and WBD could reasonably qualify, as they are trading at decade lows. Disney’s EBITDA multiple is 16.3 — significantly lower than its five-year historical average of 34. This is a presidential election year, and the likely opponent was engineered in a lab to foment the outrage and attention that sell TV ads. In addition, WBD is slowly but surely paying down its debt — once the balance sheet looks cleaner, the Street will turn, and Netflix has provided cloud cover to raise prices. Disney benefits from moats that are singular: its parks business and a streaming network that is differentiated (with its family-friendly slant and unique IP) enough to be able to compete with NFLX and WBD.
TikTok Comes for Netflix and Spotify
Bar one door, and the wolf shows up at the next. We tend to focus on competition between similar products, i.e. Netflix vs. Disney, Spotify vs. Apple Music. But entertainment is one market, the market for attention, and one platform is ahead of everyone else in harvesting the commodity: TikTok. The Chinese (and it is Chinese) company had the most ascendant platform in history until OpenAI, and it remains the frame through which Western youth perceive the world. If the last sentence sounds like a description of an existential threat to democracy and liberal values, trust your instincts. 2024 is the year we’ll see TikTok take share from streamers.
Peak AI
Last year we said AI would be the tech of the year. This year the AI bubble won’t burst, but it will deflate. This is inevitable because of overinvestment: More than a quarter of U.S. venture funding went to AI startups last year, and 4 in 5 American unicorns are now AI-related. The biggest AI startups, OpenAI and Anthropic, are valued at 180 and 200 times sales, respectively. Compare that to, say, Uber: 3.
This isn’t to say AI won’t create immense value in 2024 — it will. However, that value is already reflected in the equities of the seven companies (Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Meta, and the newcomer to the club, Nvidia) that drove the majority of the run-up in equities in 2023. The markets will need to look elsewhere for inspiration.
We’re already seeing it in corporate PR, as the rate of AI mentions in S&P 500 earnings calls dropped from 35% to 29%. Expect that number to sink lower.
Big Tech Stock Pick: Alphabet
Last year we speculated that Meta would best the other Big Tech stocks; this year we believe it will be Alphabet. In this case, large language models are the refineries and proprietary content is the fossil fuel. And Google Search, Gmail, and YouTube are the Orinoco River basin. As Reuters obsesses over whom the New York Times licenses its content to, Alphabet will build a thick layer of AI on top of your email, search habits, and YouTube viewing to make life more efficient and entertaining. OpenAI is Star Wars; Alphabet is The Empire Strikes Back. BTW, I watched Alien and Aliens with my son last night. I still think Aliens is the best sequel ever produced, and Lieutenant First Class Ellen Louise Ripley is the premier sci-fi protagonist of the 20th century. But I digress.
Tech of the Year: GLP-1
If 2023 was the year of GPT-4, 2024 will be the year of GLP-1. That is, Ozempic, Mounjaro, and all GLP-1-related weight loss technology. The market is massive and ripe for disruption. More than 70% of our nation is obese or overweight. The prevalence of obesity has tripled in the past 50 years, and the cost of obesity in the U.S. — including indirect costs and productivity losses — is estimated to be $1.7 trillion. We’ve written about this before. America is the land of the free and the home of the plus-sized. A huge swath of our economy is run on a lie — that obesity is finding “your truth” — that enables the industrial food complex to addict you to shitty, unhealthy food and then hand you off to the Diabetes Industrial Complex. Bill Maher ribbed me for saying GLP would have a greater impact on the real economy than AI. I stand by it.
Right now, the New York City neighborhood with the greatest penetration of GLP-1 prescriptions is also the thinnest (the Upper East Side) as the drug is mostly being given to wealthy ladies who lunch looking to lose that last stubborn 15 pounds. As investment in GLP-1s increases, their cost will come down and access will expand. This will have a ripple effect beyond pharma — fast food companies, including McDonald’s and Pepsi, will be affected as consumers reduce consumption. The biggest query for the consumer economy: What would America look like if it were thinner and less diabetic?
India Is the New China
In 2023, India became the world’s most populous country. In 2024 that population growth will register in economic terms. The transition is two-sided: India is investing in infrastructure and courting foreign investment, while China is investing in aircraft carriers and turning its gaze inward to deal with youth unemployment and sectors crashing. Evidence of the baton transfer: Apple is aggressively shifting iPhone production to the other side of the Himalayas.
Geopolitics: U.S.-China Relations Thaw
Expect China to dial down the brinkmanship in an attempt to stanch the bleeding of foreign capital. The Chinese economy is the sickest it’s been in generations, and the only treatment with proven efficacy is foreign investment flowing through local manufacturing. Eventually, China will have to figure out how to build housing and luxury cars for its own market without incurring massive debt. The West has an inflation problem; China a growth problem. Feels as if the two largest economies need to kiss and make up. They will.
Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia and Israel Normalize Relations
This was on the horizon before October 7, but the conventional wisdom is that the Hamas attacks and Israeli response have torpedoed normalization. Short of a broader regional war, the logic of a tie-up remains inescapable. The Saudi strategy in a world less reliant on oil is to be the swing vote, the nation that garners outsize power by getting along just well enough with everyone to have a seat at every table, a vote in every majority. My gut on this is based on an observation I made during my arrested adolescence tour to Mykonos last summer. In sum, nearly every table at the nightclubs was populated by young men from the Gulf. The Saudis are pivoting from Islamism to capitalism. They have the largest economy in the region and have said little about the Israel-Gaza war.
Musk Loses Control of Twitter (Or Sells It)
We need to stop talking about Musk as if he’s a runaway teen. In two years he’ll be eligible to live in most senior communities and people are tired of childlike behavior from a near-senior citizen. Musk’s wealth is largely tied up in Tesla and SpaceX, holdings he does not want to sell. He has borrowed heavily against both, and even the world’s wealthiest man can have cash-flow issues.
Even after Elon fired 80% of Twitter, it’s still an expensive hobby, and he’s continuing to drive away his blackmailers (i.e.,advertisers). Plus the company, and by extension Elon, face years of payments on the debt used to fund the acquisition. Elon’s ambitions are bigger than social media, and in 2024 he’ll prioritize Tesla and SpaceX over platforming people like Alex Jones, who monetize misery. Spoiler alert: None of this has anything to do with free speech.
Meta’s 2024 Growth Vehicle: WhatsApp
Facebook and Instagram are still huge, profitable businesses, but we don’t talk about them much, because what drives Big Tech valuations is growth. Meta has been keeping its third horse in the barn for years, but there’s dormant upside in a platform with 3 billion users that will soon stir. Zuck has been hinting at a monetization strategy for years and nibbling at services associated with WhatsApp. 2024 is the year the Xenomorph Internecivus Raptus bursts from Meta’s abdomen. (See above: Alien.)
Political Prediction: Biden Gets Reelected, and Trump Gets Sentenced
The truth of presidential politics is that the voters who actually decide elections — swing voters, independents, etc. — don’t pay attention to politics. That’s why they are swing voters, because they don’t spend three and a half years in a hermetically sealed echo chamber. It’s likely when they head to their polling place we’ll have low inflation, high employment, a strong economy, conflicts around the globe that don’t involve U.S. troops, and a GOP nominee who’s been convicted by a jury of his peers for crimes against the United States.
The evidence for that last prediction will be submitted at three separate trials, and the odds of beating all three are terrible: Defendants accused of federal felonies have only a 30% chance of avoiding prison time in just one trial — beating the rap in three trials comes in at a 2.7% probability (30% * 30% * 30%). In 2024 we’ll be channel-surfing between a reality show, watching a criminal attempt to mug a senior citizen, and a game show where the player’s job is to delay court cases until after he’s elected president so he can pardon himself. Jesus, we feel so fucked up right now.
Learner’s Permit
I ended ’23 with several days in the passenger seat of a car, forcing myself not to scream “slow down!” or “speed up!” My son is learning to drive. In 1980 my mom, after coming home from nine hours at her job as a secretary at an insurance company in the San Fernando Valley, would spend an hour teaching me to drive a manual transmission Opel Manta. My daily sojourns through the 7th ring of Learner’s Permit hell made me feel closer to my future and past. I wish the same for you in 2024: stress, joy, and a grasp of time’s (in)finite nature. All in the presence of people you love.
Life is so rich,
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I wonder how many in the pie charts: “Percentage of the defendants charged with …” and “Percentage of the defendants convicted …”
were …
a) Billionaires
b) Picked nearly one-third of the SCOTUS
2024 Prediction: JPMorgan Chase will collapse/file for bankruptcy.
2024 Will be the year of Epstein resignations.
Calling it right now: Joe Biden will step down and not make it to the end of his term.
STEPPED DOWN IN THE PAST 7 DAYS
JetBlue CEO Robin Hayes
Co-founder & CEO Jeff Lawson Twilio
French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne
Somaliland’s Defense Minister Abdiqani Mohamud
Tariq Habash Department of Education
Judge Vice Vanessa D. Gilmore Southern District of TX
Frank Dean, President & CEO of Yosemite National Park Conservancy
Envestnet CEO Bill Crager
Affimed N.V. (AFMD) CEO Dr. Adi Hoess
CEO of Main Line fintech
XLMedia Finance Chief CFO Caroline Ackroyd
Göteborg Head Jonas Holmberg Sweeden Movie Director
Greenbrier Finance Chief Adrian Downes
Energy Minister Chris Skidmore
Derek Chapman board of director of Brighton
Marc Sugarman board of director of Brighton
European Council President Charles Michel
EverGreen CEO Tara Rose
NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre
Denmark’s Queen Margrethe II
Queen’s Park CEO Leeann Dempster
Mitch Landrieu, Biden’s Infra. Coordinator
Ann Carlson Depart of Transportation’s (NHTSA)
Air National Guard Commander Mike DeFazio
PMV Pharma Finance COO Winston Kung
CEO Anthony Hughes of Tech Elevator
Roger Daltrey Teenage Cancer Philanthropy
MGM Springfield CEO & President Chris Kelly
Air Asia CEO Riad Asmat
Otrium CEO Zuhairah Washington
ect,ect,ect….
Parliamentary systems, as in Italy, most famously, mean that a president calls an election when the polls dip to save his party, because the president’s term isn’t set. Richard Nixon was a disliked president who stepped down, but he was worse than just a disliked president.
Well, we are probably headed to war in the ME again.
I think India is more likely cresting then revving up. Their stock markets have wildly outperformed, and gotten very expensive. YET when looking at their highest margin products/exports, there isn’t a single one that AI can’t replace tomorrow. They have a water and food problem, and the climate crisis is going to fry them : SELL
A couple of thoughts about Ozempic/Wegovy…
First, all the IP for these drugs is currently held by Novo Nordisk, a privately held Danish pharmaco, who show no signs of being friendly toward generic manufacturers of their patent-protected products. Right now GLP1 is their cash cow and they intend to keep it that way. We are a long way off from “generics” because these are peptide based drugs and very complex to manufacture.
Second, side effects. They’re bad, and have a fairly high prevalence. A small percentage of folks getting suicidal becomes a very big number when the user base is 70% of the population. These drugs are not cure-alls for our awful relationships with food. So yeah, my stock pick would be NovoNordisk 😉
I thought you would predict that unionization across the US will continue to grow and workers in unions will continue to win big contracts for the working class – the only way for workers to claw back some of the transferred wealth from the owner class. Sad to see how out of touch this list is in general.
Bidens lost his vision, his hearing, his mind, and needs a caretaker. How can he run a country, especially the US?
Better than the guy who never had any in the first place!
Why should we settle for a sad rematch between two corpses? There’s still 10 months left and this the time to put pressure on dems to do something about the abysmal polling. Get something done for the average people. De-escalate global conflicts. Run a different candidate and let Biden go.
How can you sidestep mentioning the impact of Israel’s ongoing ethnic cleansing campaign of the Palestinian people? Have you missed the fact that the entire Middle East is on the brink of incredible conflict that would have MAJOR implications on global trade and therefore the economy?
The US has not only did not do anything to prevent this conflict, but continues to escalate by (1) continuing the flow of military aid and weapons, and (2) performing military operations against Yemeni, Irani and Lebanese targets. Biden could simply de-escalate by stopping aid and telling Netanyahu to stop the genocide.
How do you only bring up Saudi Arabia when in fact they have long ago “normalized” relations with Israel based shared US support and interest in attempting to maintain US global hegemony?
This is a disappointed account from someone I used to look up to for solid analysis and insight.
I second this & indeed is disappointing from Galloway. But you know what, the ones with the money and power will drive narrative !
Iran and their subsidiaries Hezbollah, Hamas and Houthis have the stated goal of genocide of the Jews. They openly state this. All Israel has ever done is defend itself against acts of aggression. They have tried many times to make peace. Why doesn’t Hamas attack Jordan? That used to be part of Palestine. This is not about land, this is about persecuting the Jews, which has been going on for thousands of years. At this point expecting them to have patience and tolerance is a joke…Plus, in terms of that regeion, it’s generally not important. No one cares if there is conflict there…there’s always conflict there. The only globally important factor is the Red Sea which is currently under attack from Iran and the Houthis. This has the potential to restart global inflation in a big way.
The creation and maintenance of the theocratical ethnostate of Israel was done through unimaginable violence against a native population of Palestinians since the 1948 Nakba all the way through current day.
Israel’s stated goal is and has always been continued expansion by ethnically cleansing the Palestinians from their native land. Palestinians never had a state or equal rights and representation under Israeli occupation.
Hamas has only been in existence since the 80s and it only exists as a resistance movement (propped up by Netanyahu and viewed as an “asset” according to the IDF) to the apartheid conditions the Palestinians are subjected to.
Israel is the least safe place for Jews not because of Hamas but because of the actions of Israel continuing to exercise aggression and tension building in the region, leading to constant conflict.
Why do you think the houthis are blockading trade in the Red Sea? It’s because Israel has a carte Blanche from the US and EU to continue slaughtering Gaza’s population – which the Arab states in the region (rightfully so) is not going to sit back and let happen.
Biden could have ended this tension on Oct 8 by stopping funding to Israel and immediately deescalating.
How can you predict a Biden win where even in the most optimistic poles he is behind Trump by at least 3 percentage points? Biden has not delivered on any of his campaign promises, plus he is currently aiding and abetting genocide in Gaza. We lost Dobbs protections and nothing was done to protect students, lgbt rights, or women’s rights.
You say that the economy will be strong – it will be strong for property owning boomers, where the vast majority of Gen-Z and Millennials remain priced out of the housing market. The right wing shift of the US continues. Without a progressive agenda or Biden dropping out, Trump will easily draw working class vote in key swing states and is more likely to win.
There is still time for Brandon to do something, however unlikely.
With marginal leads or none in both houses and a do nothing GOP, I am surprised he wasn’t impeached let alone do so well with the economy! Let is tell our independent friends to vote Democrat down the line just once, just once and we will have two great parties for the election in 2028!
Another side effect of less eating with Oh Oh Oh Ozempic is less pooping… so the “downstream” effect on America’s wastewater needs to be thought about. I suspect less colon cancer, fewer knee surgeries, better ankles and lower Dr. Scholl’s sales too.
Prof G- thanks for your visions here! You’re wrestling with America and the short term future of our great county is inspiring. As an expat living in the Netherlands I value your no bullshit finger on the pulse. And the father stories 🙂 Again- thanks.
Generally smart predictions, but you err in applying market logic to a religious cult. I’m talking about the Middle Kingdom not the Middle East. You and fellow Sinotourists don’t get China.
You get points for consistency. You predict that markets will “force” China to do this that or the other, get sand kicked in your face, and repeat the same prediction. The invisible hand will no more warm US-China relations in 2014 than it levitated Chinese tech in 2013.
I hope you’re right about Biden. Thank you for asking why more people are not supporting Jews who are experiencing freightening levels of hate and violence.
imagine the frightening levels of hate and violence Palestinians experience every day as they are relentlessly bombed and eviscerated in the most gruesome and unimaginable ways. IDF callously posting on social media as they collectively punish the people of gaza, but tell me more about how you are “uncomfortable” by the realization that you are a zionist.
please reflect and read some books. practice empathy and solidarity – like so many jewish voices do, despite the frightening levels of hate they experience from zionists like you.
A genocide in palestine doesn’t justify anything
Have you thought about not being so cocky about Biden’s chances? It’s not even certain he’ll get out of the primaries, given that too many of his party like Hamas more than they like him. At least you’re not trash-talking everyone and anyone in ways that make Trump look polite, like too many of your online colleagues. It’s not great hearing from writers who hate everyone in your entire state because 51 percent of the fraction who voted cast ballots for Trump. I despise Trump, and I’m sure a lot of people do, but that won’t help Democrats if too many online writers and politicians choose to be equally despicable jerks.
You think that people like “Hamas”? Have you no shame or are you so ignorant that you don’t think Palestinians are human beings. 23K human beings including 10,000 children have been slaughtered to date in Gaza. 10 babies every single day require limb amputations WITHOUT ANESTHESIA. You seriously think that people like Hamas, or would you reconsider and educate yourself on the subject matter?
I don’t think it’s good to behead babies while raping and murdering hostages, as Hamas has done. I don’t think it’s good to ask Israel not to fight back when Hamas fired first and declared war. A war with only Hamas firing would be a massacre of Israel. I doubt Hamas cares much about the Palestinians if its fighters hide in tunnels under hospitals with human beings in them.
I’m not happy about the casualties in the defense of Israel, but I realize that they are in defense against attacks, and I wouldn’t be happy about seeing more Israelis slaughtered, either.
I didn’t say everyone in the Democratic Party sides with Hamas. I don’t, for one. I do believe it’s enough to cause Joe Biden political problems in an election year.
I did get the feeling that the people who side with Hamas expect everyone to go along with them if they were loud enough, but that’s not happening and I’m glad.
Perhaps Iran could offer land for a Palestinian homeland that’s nowhere near Israel. It would take a gesture like that to end the violence.
I predict that the United States will ban hypnotherapy, recognizing that a profession that can enter people’s minds but can’t come up with a way to enforce its ethics code is unredeemable. Belgium already has made hypnosis illegal, and Israel puts hypnotherapists under strict legislation. We’re not leaders on this, but we can still do the right thing.
I predict that the United States will ban hypnotherapy, recognizing that a profession that can enter people’s minds but can’t come up with a way to enforce its ethics code is unredeemable. Belgium already has made hypnosis illegal, and Israel puts hypnotherapists under strict legislation. We’re not leaders on this, but we can still do the right thing.
Want to know what the USA would look like if it was thinner and less diabetic? Look at old film footage from the 1940’s to the 1960’s.
Good job Scott!
My thoughts – prices won’t drop but they’ll stabilize, unless they are a commodity like gas. If gas prices drop enough, Biden wins.
Elon is screwing himself into the ground. As a freedom of speech activist, you cannot shut the people who disagree with you off. Elon’s proving himself to be a bigger moron with each passing cycle.
The Ozempc clan is starting to figure shit out. Not because they’re
Learning so quickly, but because so many in their cohort is leaving them behind. The younger generations are way, way smarter and making better choices. Peer pressure is pushing the generations that matter most now, in the right direction. As a proud baby boomer, I’m so ashamed! We hold much of the wealth, but little of the wisdom!
China needs us way more than we need them. India does not because they are part of the information economy, not the crap economy, so they’re much better positioned.
Donald Trump is the definition of anti-American. He cares only about himself and he must go away – forever!!
Thanks Scott for all that you do, love your books and the pods. Happy 2024! Let’s go $WBD and $DIS!
I watched C-SPAN and Senator Elizabeth Warren quiz Chairman Powell on inflation. She asked a series of questions like “Would raising the rate cure the West Coast port bottleneck(s)?”, etc. Powell answered no to about a dozen questions like this. So why did they raise rates? If raising rates is their biggest tool, isn’t their a drive to apply it to all the causes of the past inflation?
Could the FED have loaned the West Coast ports money to fix their problems? Could the FED work with the truck driving schools to increase the number of semi-truck drivers? ETC.
Please post the video on your YouTube channel so we can see the slide deck.
Another great shitty hot taek. Typical liberal dreamweaving. Biden is going to lose and folks like yourself will spend the next four years crying, “Oh my God how did this happen?” because you are so out of touch with reality.
Seeing libs cry is MAGA’s raison d’être.
Trump convicted. You’re funny. Bogus convictions are always appealed.
Deep insight with substance! Most other gurus are just noise. Thank you.
Don’t be a schmuck. Pay a professional to teach your son to drive, you can afford it, more than the stress and angst of teaching him yourself!
What about Russia, the motherland nation?
Love you Scott! You are truly the best. A smart, self aware, brave human being. You have done more good in the world than you will ever know.
so brave he could not even bring himself to analyze the wide-reaching impact of Israel’s ongoing ethnic cleansing campaign in Gaza. Very brave and very human indeed.
Scott,
You are mellowing out…finally.
Yes, Ripley from All ‘ALIENS’ movies is hot but #2 I totally agree with.
Do connect more with the connections in ‘the world of the modern child’ as the past is prologue thing is ripe with why we as adults chose all the things we do…ie my post adolescent vacation in Paris and Nice.
You are a breath of fresh air once again.
Your friend,
P.J. Olsen
Talk about giving life to language, and language to life…it’s a balance rarely achieved even by the best of poets…you,sir, are a complete package!!! Barring the fact that I understood less than 30% of your submission ,am in no doubt,you are a genius!!! Thank you sir.
I just wanted to thank you for another year of your unique, provocative annd informative insight and hope that your last prediction for this year comes true.
May your Mother rest in peace and her memory continue to provide steadfast patience to your parenting. Your obs: a razor sharp kiss on pillows of privilege, built on the wings of a working class woman. Love it. Thank you for the intel and the uptake.
Wow! Opel Manta! A cult car in Germany with many fans and even films devoted to it. I am now driving a simple Opel Corsa
Great column. I like that you put yourself out there, and the analysis is consistently insightful. You might be right about Disney; however, if I’m choosing one stock in the entertainment field, I’m going with Nintendo. It’s staring you in the face, right? 2023’s highest grossing animated film, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, also serves as a two hour commercial for a new Mario game. What character have kids born in the 80s after had more positive interactions with, Mario or Mickey? Finally, if the new Switch drops next year, and it’s a hit, the stock will go through the roof. Many are speculating that Nintendo is considering an iPhone business model for the new Switch: regular upgrades and an app store (for Nintendo game store), where they take a cut out of everything sold.
Nothing about Apple in 2024? trading with a P/E of 30 and a market cap of 2.8 trillion (with a T). Given their poor revenue performance and NOTHING about an LLM offering . Siri was nice when it came out, but now it’s stoneage compared to other solutions using LLMs. I know you avoid picking losers, but Apple’s impact on the market can’t be ignored. Tell us what you think.
Love reading your predictions and reading your post. Endless blessing in 24 and hope many of your predictions come true!
Meh, you’ve never been right on Elon, and I don’t expect you’ll start now either… 🤷🏻♂️
X the new name for Twitter after Elon Musk’s takeover, is facing a tough time as its value has dropped significantly. Musk’s achievement has resulted in a 71% decrease, bringing the valuation down to $12 billion.
This large decline is raising doubts about Musk’s strategy for the platform, which has been dealing with financial challenges.
I will continue to pour billions of dollars down the drain to fill a sink hole in my soul and to spread more right wing propaganda than you’ve ever seen before. Cheers to another year of incredible caring I will most definitely unleash on humanity.
The Saudis are pivoting from Islamism to capitalism so hard, they rejected a request by two Turkish football teams to fly a banner before the Turkish Super Cup final in Riyadh “Peace at home, peace in the world” a famous quote by Ataturk – founder of the secularist modern Turkey.
you think Saudis are making a pivot to capitalism now??? they are the richest monarchy in the entire region and subjecting the vast majority of their citizens to neo-feudalism. “Islamism” is not a mode of organizing the economy…
Great column.
Regarding Trump’s chances of conviction – the Georgia case is State not Federal. Don’t know stats for conviction/prison in State trials vs. Federal, but I suspect State rates are lower.
And your prediction does not consider the possibility that none of these cases reach trial before the election. With the delay tactics already being deployed, and a friendly Supreme Court, there is a non-zero chance that none reach trial before the election.
Thus I am less sanguine than you about the conviction of Trump. Ever.
Heard this last night. Mildly interesting.
I dabble in stats, but highly doubt that billionaires, let alone ex presidents would not be an outlier to your conviction chart? I love a good Black Swan. Do you see growth in blue collar jobs as college is now viewed the same as housing, out of reach unless you go in debt for $100K+?
I can’t tell you how happy I am to have stumbled upon you. A real enrichment of my life, thought-provoking, whip-smart BLUE FLAME THINKER. Thanks.
….Love the statistical data on the chances of unnamed ex pres beating Federal charges.
“Aliens” is indeed one of the greatest sequels ever. For me, the greatest sequel is “Godfather, Part 2” but of course it’s all subjective. “Terminator 2” is also up there, as is “Before Sunset.” I enjoy all four of these slightly more than the original.
As far as your 2024 predictions, I’m surprised you mentioned nothing about bitcoin. I think it will have a staggering rise.
So much good content but more importantly, Aliens is by far the best, hands down, sequel ever to grace the big screen. As a tall woman with brown, curly hair, Ripley was my childhood hero, she was smart, logical, and a total badass. I appreciate the value of your content suffused with humor.
Really funny at the end about your son learning to drive – I don’t have kids but many friends do and they’re telling me their kids have NO interest in driving. With Uber/Lyft and to some degree, Lime scooters, they don’t want a car of their own etc. Will be interesting to see if this holds true as Gen Alpha gets to driving age.