Toxic Uncertainty
Audio Recording by George Hahn
Jesus, this is Stupid
Countries have long used tariffs to protect strategic industries or counter unfair trade practices. In some cases, targeted tariffs are justified. In his first term, Donald Trump imposed levies on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods — tariffs that Joe Biden largely retained. But blanket tariffs of the scale we’re now seeing are what leeches are to medicine, an outdated strategy that doesn’t work.
With his “Liberation Day” tariffs, Trump has threatened to blow up the global economic order and spread pain around the world, from China to the Pacific island nation of Nauru. But when the shitstorm subsides, America will emerge from the wreckage with the most serious wounds. Erecting a protectionist trade wall around the U.S. is a brilliant idea … if your goal is to elegantly reduce American prosperity.
The markets ripped higher Wednesday when Trump postponed tariffs on dozens of nations (except China) — pulling the knife halfway out of the back of the U.S. economy — then tumbled again the next day. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters: “I don’t see anything unusual.” Investors disagree. They realize these injuries will take years to heal. Brand America now stands for toxic uncertainty.
Extreme tariffs, if sustained, will immolate decades of economic integration, bringing an end to an era of globalization that’s created unprecedented wealth for the U.S. They’ll raise prices and decrease demand for American products abroad, curbing economic growth and destroying shareholder value. The revenue raised will be dwarfed by the losses. Like Britain’s vote to leave the European Union in 2016 — dubbed “Independence Day” by Nigel Farage and the other Brexit dullards — Trump’s tariffs will go down as one of the biggest own goals in history. But this is Farage on steroids, and the fallout will be much wider.
It’s impossible to foresee exactly how this will play out. Before I sign off, Trump’s sclerotic policies will undoubtedly have lurched again (see above: toxic uncertainty). But what’s clear is that Trump’s trade war will thrust America’s allies into the arms of its adversaries. To quote Winston Churchill: “There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them.” We’ve moved to the “worse” part of the equation. One country is playing the long game, however, and positioning itself to exploit America’s self-harm: China.
Bob and Weave
When I first moved to New York, I started boxing with a trainer, who convinced me that I had a gift (I was paying him) and talked me into entering a tournament. I was dumb enough to do it. I remember the bell, and the bright lights as I lay flat on my back. More than two decades later, my nose still veers to the right. It turns out a 23-year-old, 5-foot-8 guy who knows how to box and weighs 190 pounds, is a reasonable facsimile of Mike Tyson when matched up against a 38-year-old professor. My rookie strategic mistake: assuming your adversary won’t hit back.
After Trump detonated his tariff bomb in that now infamous Rose Garden ceremony, China responded swiftly and aggressively, declaring it would match the president’s taxes with its own levies on imports from the U.S. Although Trump later said he’d pause “reciprocal” tariffs for most countries for 90 days, he raised tariffs on China’s exports to 145% in a desperate cry for some sort of big (i.e., small) dick relevance. China has vowed to “fight to the end.” The difference: Xi means what he says. Trump is the other guy.
While a trade war will likely hurt China more, that misses a key point: China is willing to endure more pain. Remember, we left Vietnam after losing 58,000 men compared with more than 1 million for the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong. I love the U.S., but the notion that Americans are going to tolerate 50% fewer toys under the Christmas tree and $3,500 iPhones is laughable.
New Alliances
Amid the chaos, Europe is pitching itself as “reliable, predictable, and open for fair business.” The EU has signed trade deals with Mexico, Chile, and Mercosur — a South American bloc that includes Brazil and Argentina — and aims to finalize a pact with India by the end of the year. As the markets melted down, and the president’s acolytes took to CNBC to make excuses for giving the wheel of the world’s largest economy to a madman, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Central Asia to seal a new strategic partnership.
Among the countermeasures Europe is considering if talks with Trump fail are imposing tougher regulation on American Big Tech and taxing digital services. And there’s the insult to the injury. Europe loses revenue that trades at about 0.3x price/sales (Mercedes), while we lose revenue that registers at about 8x price/sales (Meta). This is not apples for apples, but apples to aircraft carriers … and we are on the wrong side of the trade.
Trump could also thrust Europe into the arms of China. The two sides agreed to restart negotiations after the EU hit Chinese-made EVs with greater tariffs last year, with Europe willing to take a “fresh look” at pricing. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is holding its first economic dialogue with South Korea and Japan in five years and carrying out a broader “charm offensive” aimed at redirecting exports away from the U.S. China is touting itself as a global trade champion, minus the toxic uncertainty. In a meeting with Spain’s prime minister today, Xi Jinping called for closer collaboration with the EU to defend economic globalization and resist Trump.
Nobody Gets Out Alive
Regardless of how skillfully America’s trading partners react, Trump’s tariffs will inflict significant global damage. Tariffs on European exports could reverse any gains from Germany’s planned defense and infrastructure spending, while also hitting Italy, Ireland and other countries especially hard. At the same time, China is coping with Trump’s measures at a time when it’s trying to attract foreign investment to tackle anemic growth and deflationary pressure. Even governments in Africa that Trump has contemptuously dismissed as “shithole countries” find themselves in his crosshairs.
In addition to sending shock waves around the world, the tariffs will lead to carnage at home. Trump believes that taking the effective U.S. tariff rate to levels we haven’t seen in a century will spark an American manufacturing renaissance, make the country more self-reliant, and correct decades of unfair trade imbalances. In pursuit of this fever dream that will never turn to reality, we’ve decided to fight a war on every front. Each nation will see products imported from the U.S. rise in cost as they respond with their own tariffs. However, the U.S. will see an increase in the cost of all imports as we take on the world.
Anyone? Anyone?
If you know the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, it’s likely you recall the scene from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, the 1986 Matthew Broderick movie. Anyone? Anyone? Smoot-Hawley imposed sweeping tariffs on imported goods to protect American workers — sparking a global trade war and deepening the Great Depression in the process. U.S. tariffs under Trump will be even greater.
Hurting Apple
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick sees a future in which Apple’s iPhones are assembled in America, eliminating what he called a Chinese “army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little, little screws.” With Apple making most of its iPhones in China, a trade war means the company will have to eat the costs or raise prices and shift the pain to its customers — a scenario that could drive the cost of a high-end iPhone to as much as $2,300 from about $1,600 and slash Apple’s market cap.
Although the company has diversified production to other countries, those nations too have been targeted. And — sorry, Howard — Apple isn’t going to make iPhones in America. If the company chose to relocate production to the U.S., they could cost an estimated $3,500. Lutnick asked why iPhones can’t be made in the U.S. with robotics, but he also seems to realize that automation won’t fuel a sharp rise in manufacturing jobs. The insanity of believing “this time” will inspire a better outcome led to Apple shedding the value of Walmart in three trading days.
Even if America were to undergo a manufacturing revival, it would take years to realize. Intel estimates it takes three or four years to complete construction of a semiconductor fabrication plant. U.S. producers also import an array of items, from car parts to electronic components, relying on countries including Mexico, China, and Canada.
Undermining America’s Advantages
Trump’s tariffs ignore other important factors. As the number of manufacturing jobs has plunged since the 1970s, U.S. wealth has surged, with the country relying increasingly on knowledge-economy jobs in areas ranging from software development to financial products. America has made a conscious decision to move to higher-end businesses that pay better than traditional manufacturing roles.
To be sure, industrial towns across the nation have experienced painful declines, and many Americans have been left behind. But I don’t see young Americans clamoring to work on an assembly line. There are better ways to address America’s economic problems, lift people out of poverty, and tackle inequality. One is to hike the federal minimum wage to $25 an hour from a pathetic $7.25, as I’ve argued before.
Nvidia vs. Mercedes
There’s another reason this is idiotic: America exports higher-margin products and imports lower-margin ones. Contrast Nvidia, which enjoys a 56% profit margin selling highly valuable computer chips, with Mercedes, the German carmaker, which expects a profit margin of no more than 8% this year. U.S. exports also create much more market value — Tesla recently traded at more than 8x revenue, while Toyota traded at less than 0.8x revenue — meaning the tariffs will punish American companies more.
Autocrats First
Before he’s even reached the 100-day mark, Trump has given lap dances to a murderous dictator in Russia, ambushed the democratically elected leader of Ukraine at the White House, sought to undermine the rule of law, jeopardized the country’s position as a global research leader, and threatened to take over Greenland and annex Canada. Canada, which hid Americans in Tehran during the Iranian hostage crisis.
By isolating itself and splintering its economic alliances, America is on a dangerous course that will weaken its economy and imperil its dominance on the global stage. It’s as if Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are running the country, not Trump and Vance.
White House officials said the U.S. is considering offers from 15 countries and is close to trade deals with some of them. Does anyone believe that? Regardless of how these talks unfold, confidence in America is rapidly eroding. Rebuilding trust and repairing the economic damage will take many years.
Stupid
The definition of stupid is hurting others while hurting yourself. Let’s hope the Republicans riding shotgun will realize the guy with his hand on the wheel is crazy. My prediction: Within six months, U.S. tariffs will be largely the same as when Trump decided to Make America 1890 Again. U.S. citizens will opt for Netflix and Novocaine over outdoor plumbing and child labor. Xi will not back down. With Trump, he’s come to the same conclusion as Succession’s Logan Roy re his own kids: “You are not serious people.” Stupid, just fucking stupid.
Life is so rich,
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Yes, Trump’s uncertainty is toxic indeed. However, it also allows for a great opportunity to develop Tropophilia.
My prediction is that this will be Trump’s first smack in the mouth. Taking on China in such a disrespectful manner is stupid in so many ways. First of all China is not a democracy, US still is. That means the power of people will be a way bigger issue for US than China. What happens when iPhone’s suddenly costs 1,5 times more…. Loads of US companies have their production in China, did Trump think he could bully the Chinese to the negotiating table? China is the owner of +700 billion in US state obligations. Is Trump trying to pressure China to sell these? That would really impact the US economy, with inflation skyrocketing… This seem to be an excellent example of underestimating your opponent.
The way the US are treating their allies now, will definitely not make America great again. This may result in better trade deals for US in the short term, but the trust that has been built since WW2, may be lost over night. And we might see China raise as the dominant superpower.
When you make the comment “ But I don’t see young Americans clamoring to work on an assembly line. There are better ways to address America’s economic problems, lift people out of poverty, and tackle inequality. One is to hike the federal minimum wage to $25 an hour from a pathetic $7.25, as I’ve argued before.” you are forgetting that younger adults are not fully actualized in their career. You need different kinds of jobs when you are young to understand your strengths & weaknesses. The service industry (fast food, restaurant, retail) is no different than an assemble line. Some people want the interaction w the public & other’s don’t. Some will rise up & become supervisors & managers. Others will decide to go to college & never go back to the service industry or assembly line. Don’t discount the need for assembly line jobs as America climbs out of its opioid epidemic with recovering addicts needing a low skill job that is steady and in their region, providing stability & income as they rebuild their life in sobriety. More importantly, their children & extended family need a low skill or mid-skill job for their recovering addict so they can focus on sobriety while still earning income.
What does any of that have to do with the minimum wage being $7.25?
The damage to brand America is beyond toxic and will not be healed. The post-war economic consensus was already crumbling: as Prof G and Nick Hanauer have pointed out, the engine of the system, the middle class, has been at worst been destroyed, at best proven to be founded on a bargain which no longer holds, a trickle down process which never worked.
America was the last guarantor of this system. Firstly as financial backstop; the economic volatility triggered by Trump’s actions show that to be tenuous at best. Secondly as the emotional and narrative bedrock of the post-war world order it founded. America was the military and economic power of last resort through the Cold War & the war on terror, a national persona maintained through its cultural and media output as much as its geopolitical activity. It was the hallucinator-in-chief, maintaining the illusion that everything was alright and inevitably getting better. Trump has destroyed that at a stroke.
The American constitution was specifically engineered to prevent the accretion of unchecked power to the executive. The checks and balances have clearly, comprehensively, failed. The history of the gun violence debate has shown that the sort of consitutional overhaul required to make another Trump impossible is itself impossible.
The clock cannot be turned back to the good old days, brand America cannot be relaunched. If it happened once, it can happen again, and no-one can take the chance of being wrong on this.
I really hope and pray that you do not quote Winston Churchill. He is a crass racist and was directly responsible for the death of 4+ million Indians. It is good to pay attention to these kind of details. Though your writing is excellent, it is always good to pay attention to history written by folks who pay attention to facts.
You’re Irish right? Why do you take my Lord’s name in vain? Do you profit by it? Does it make your family proud? I call people by “their pronouns” just to be polite, because I think it’s important to show people love. What type of lad are you?
As you pointed out on your podcast with Kara Swisher , he just blinked again and exempted iPhones from Chinese tariffs
The Chinese first round of reciprocal tariffs at 34%?
SAME NUMBER OF TRUMP’S FELONY CONVICTIONS.
The Chinese leadership has a sense of humor, after al..
Say what you will about Prof G, but his predictions are usually spot on.
I hope more people, especially our reps in Congress, can awaken from their daze as they follow the “Trump piper” and adopt the rational views you express!
This is brilliant and should be read on the morning announcements in every high school in America on Monday
Prof G always calls a spade a spade
Excellent piece. Yet remember that over 50% of Americans voted strongly for this joker/clown/Anti-Hero. Perhaps that is the real issue that should be addressed
Yes, but that majority is now fading and that fade is accelerating.
No , 50% of Americans did not vote for Capt. Bone Spurs. 50% of voters did. I can’t remember what percentage actually voted, but I think it was less than 40%. I hope that most of them have learned a valuable lesson , but I don’t think that is going to happen. Not while we have the idiot channels still floating across our airwaves. Most of his followers are lucky to have basic plumbing in their homes, the other half are greedy idiots that think America can do whatever it pleases and they will benefit from it. They also believe billionaires pay too much in taxes. Fools
Not wrong
Bill, the United States is a country where just about everyone has plumbing, just in case you actually don’t realize that.
Everyone in the United States is lucky to have basic plumbing, even you, Bill.
I hope everyone in the world will be so lucky one day. Wouldn’t that be a better world?
I would really like to hold the voters responsible who put this clown in office. How do we do that? It is so easy to vote, and then people just act like they “had no idea this would happen” or “that’s not what I voted for” or “wow, what a surprise,” in addition to the supporters who are perfectly happy with the way he is blowing up the rule of law, among other things. How do we hold these voters accountable for their role in making all this happen?
Trump will sign an empty deal with China – remember those Wisconsin Foxconn factories – to grease the sale of TikTok to one of his kleptocrat-oligarch megadonors. And then the deal will fall apart and the trade war with China will be on again.
Its time for someone to do a headshot 🙂
Businesses need to invest in the medium to long term. Tariffs will not make them bring manufacturing to America, when they don’t know how long they will last.
China is only putting tariffs on US goods it can source elsewhere. 125 percent tariffs will just encourage Chinese buyers to buy from anywhere but the US.
Trump’s tariffs are encouraging the rest of the world to increase trade with each other, to replace the trade they were doing with the US. No need to use US dollars for trade. The Yuan and euro can easily replace the US dollar. Many countries already use their own currency for trade instead of US dollars. There are already plenty of other transfer systems available to use instead of SWIFT.
If Japan cannot export EVs and other goods to the US it does not need 1) 1.1 trillion US Treasury Bonds, 2) it does not need to be a US ally, 3) they can cancel having a US military base in their country, and 4) it does not need to source US military weapons unless there are some that are especially worth buying.
China, South Korea and Japan are now doing an FTA. China and the Europeans are doing deals.
Trump has just hugely reduced US power, trust and influence in the world. US companies that were getting a free ride in many countries because America was seen as being their security provider, those companies are about to get slapped with taxes.
my 90 year-old mother-in-law said it better than any economist: “why would he destroy the greatest economy in the history of the world?”
Love the post but has anyone pointed out that leeches are useful in modern medicine still?
If you cant see the con, then maybe you’re the mark.
Anybody who pathologically lies is by definition untrustworthy. We have elected an untrustworthy man to lead the free world.
Trump crypto anyone?
If you can’t see the con then you’re probably the mark…..
If you cant see the con, then maybe you’re the mark.
Anybody who pathologically lies is by definition untrustworthy. We have elected an untrustworthy man to lead the free world.
Trump crypto anyone?
If you can’t see the con then you’re probably the mark.
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A lot of complaining and only one solution? Raise the federal minimum wage? California has raised the minimum wage significantly and there is more poverty and homelessness here now than ever. Don’t believe that will work. I can’t see America just continuing to let China steal our IT, tariff the heck out of our goods and not face repercussion. They have played unfair for decades and it’s time the playing field is leveled. Even if we don’t buy as many junk toys this Christmas. Maybe this will teach American society to not be such a consuming culture. We take our money send it to china in exchange for toxic toys that end up in our landfills in 6 months. The cycle is in fact STUPID! we have so much poverty because we think we need to buy the latest I phone, stupid toy, etc rather than produce something of value. If we are honest with ourselves we only really need 10% of the garbage we buy from China.
Agreed that as a society we should stop buying crap from China. But thats not the purported ourpose of the tariffs. Trump’s linr is thatnthey are either (a) going to generate a lot of revenue – which assumes that peole keep buyi g crap at higher prices, or (b) going to create manufacturing jobs in the US – which assunes we want to have lots of menial jobs where workers “screw in tiny screws”. Neither makes any sense as a policy.
American savings rate: 4%. Chinese savings rate: 40%. Those two numbers tell you all you need to know. The American consumer who complains of inflation, gas prices, egg prices, the rich getting richer – they only have themselves to blame.
Scott, please stop being a drama queen, let this play out and take the time to read the Art of the Deal. This entire policy shift relates to 1) our paying to be being the protector of the world and 2) China. China is not our friend, and we have to stop pretending that they are. Trillions of dollars of intellectual property have been stolen, and we treat them to practically unfettered access to our valuable market and legal system. Now that is stupid. The reciprocal does not occur. A problem of this magnitude will not be resolved overnight. Just the same, a very sick patient (from decades of globalist policies) does not get cured overnight.
I’m sure you realize that we hold Chinese companies whose shares are traded in US markets to a different standard than we hold US companies. This is absurd and must change.
The other point that your analysis seems to overlook is China’s blatant threat of attacking Taiwan. So, we should just help them get stronger and fund another stupid war. I don’t think so.
I absolutely love what Trump is doing, despise the way he is being treated by most of the media and academia. The guy feeds off of this so keep doing it, please! Secondary education risks losing offshore and governmental funding to continue to build unnecessary endowments and the ability to spewing DEI bull shit to our kids. I am so very excited about that! Our grandchildren appreciate it.
The funniest part of The Art of the Deal is that it was ghostwritten.
Also, do you know that the Trump corporation used to stage negotiations with Trump and partners after the deals had already been made so he felt like he was “making deals.” Trump has always been a laughing stock in the business world but he has proven to be an excellent con man in a country where the 54% of the population who can’t read above a 6th grade level lack the critical thinking skills to decipher fact from fiction.
Wow, drinking the cool-aid in gallon jugs! Rest assured, it isn’t just the media and academia that despise Trump and abhor his “policies” if you can call them that. Ordinary folk like me find him despicable too!
No single person has done more to tear apart our alliances, make enemies, deteriorate our economy and weaken us as a nation than Trump in these first 3 months in office. You’re of course free to disagree (although mind you, any notions of free expression are subject to his sole discretion) but you’ll never convince me that what he’s doing makes any sense.
Even if tarrifs would be a good strategy, by implementing the by fiat versus a notmal.political process practically guarantees they will be reversed in 2 or 4 years. That being the case, no company in its right mind would make investments based on the cost structure they create.
Your grandkids better become fluent in Chinese!
All of your readers stopped when they hit “Art of the Deal”.
I think everyone agrees that China is not our friend, and our major competitor in the world. The question is, what do we do about it? The solution Trump has put together makes no sense. Where is the discussion of investing in new U.S. “high margin” industries? Where is the discussion of innovation, STEM, entrepreneurial support from the government to make our IP and business creation “great again”? Where is the discussion of building alliances with allies to block out China from world markets? Where is the common sense? This guy is a clown.
Whoa Kemo Sabe… So, you are telling me you are happy with the results of Joe Biden and team after his four years. You make laugh. After 4 years, the books are coming out from greed filled grave diggers, former insiders of that nonsense. It took how many decades to get us where our trade deficit is absurd and our country’s debt is even more so. Clinton signed us up for NAFTA and was shaking his pom poms to get China into the WTO. History goes back farther but these are good reference points. You want the status quo of the last 30 years? I doubt you do. The next time you write something like this, include your list of solutions for all the problems Trump is taking head on; Gaza/Iran, Russia/Ukraine, our border was NOT secure Mr. Mayorkas (WTH?!), Fentanyl deaths, crime/defunding police, ruthless trading partners, allies that want our protection and won’t pay for it. Trump has gone through impeachments, being shot at, surveilled, FBI searches in his home. Liberals in our country think the fight is with Trump. That is woefully wrong. If I missed your solutions, please repost them. Thx.
Raising the minimum wage to $25 an hour creates a ridiculously high price floor for labor. Businesses will be unable to afford workers. We will shift towards more robots even quicker, as they become more feasible and cheaper. This is exactly what tariffs could bring, causing cheap Asian labor to look more expensive and giving us more innovation in robotics as an alternative.
AGI and robotics will be replacing most workers in the mid future. Trump likes to talk big game and make threats but his bark is worse than his bite. It’s all optics and making people respect him. As other commenters have said, your commentary would be more interesting without such blatantly cringe liberal bias.
Zelensky was not “ambushed”. He was taught a lesson to stop expecting aid from allies that he does nothing to benefit in return.
Not being a genius professor/bad boxer or vice versa, i don’t know where this ends. but if you don’t believe we are already in a war with China, your head is in the sand or whatever place our last President’s head was. their real estate market is in shambles, giant ghost apartment and luxury home developments, exports down and do we really need cheap Chinese toys to keep our masses at bay. i think Americans like to be production and would love to see production on-shored. i for one would like to see more chip/semiconductor , pharmaceutical and other high tech manufacturing plants in the US. and I thank Trump for realizing that, unlike Sleepy Joe and the abysmal Mayorkas, we didn’t need a whole bunch of new laws, we just needed a new Presiddent and return to enforcing existing laws. the hundred thousand saved from deliberate fentanyl poisoning will thank him while you complain about typing your newsletter on a $3500 iPhone
For such an educated person in his ivory tower, Scott doesn’t understand that we have been at war for China for the past decade. The Covid lab leak, the timing of the Deepseek release, are blatant acts of economic warfare, let alone the trade imbalance. Yet Scott insists on the mainstream narrative that the US and the Trump administration are the instigators in this war.
Again, I think everyone agrees that China is not our friend, and our major competitor in the world. Again, the question is, what do we do about it? The solution Trump has put together makes no sense. Where is the discussion of investing in new U.S. “high margin” industries? Where is the discussion of innovation, STEM, entrepreneurial support from the government to make our IP and business creation “great again”? Where is the discussion of building alliances with allies to block out China from world markets? Where is the common sense? This guy is a clown.
Prof G and others – any solutions please for solving the national debt with the trade imbalance, stolen IP, counterfeiting product back into the US after IP is shared – Zevo from P&G – not big tech chips – it kills bugs -a simple US innovation – check Amazon for the rip off of inserts that look just like the products we US folks created and the return to Main Street shareholders – any assurance you will not have your business partner in China disappear who we count on for life saving medications? By the way Chinese ingredients for fentanyl aren’t the ingredients I’m talking about. Let’s continue to rely on China for Aluminum or steel to build roads or aircraft to defend ourselves – and as their ships encircle Taiwan we will send the Taiwanese our thoughts and prays. And we can start looking for chips elsewhere. Any idea where we’d look?
“Jack, Jack Ma, where did you go?”
Solutions please.
I guess I am not smart enough to realize that just complaining without offering solutions is what we should be doing.
Try going to your CEO and just point out what isn’t going to work and see how long you have a job.
Scott, you are much better when you focus on your expertise, and the area of economic globalization you focus on is slanted by your liberal viewpoints.
China’s leadership is under great pressure for the current real estate crisis, the loss of tens of millions of people lost by Covid that can only be understated by a regime that controls all narratives. Chinese are beginning to speak out, and the regime is getting concerned that wages cannot sustain their people and the ability to suppress dissent is weakening. All in China is more challenging now than it has been since 1989. The streets are eerily empty, you are considered washed up at 35, and a significant portion of recent city dwellers are returning to their rural villages because of the cost of living in large cities is impossible for the average Chinese citizen.
If you were evenhanded, Scott, people other than those who already drink your kool aid might give you more credence, but that isn’t going to happen.
Your insights in things you know are useful, but leave the prognosticating of Trump’s efforts the time to filter into what might be the first time since WWII that we start to clean up our balance sheet and give all Americans the opportunity to see their kids do better that them.
Scott,
I got your prediction down. We’ll see who is really stupid.
Agree with all your observations on where this is headed, but the fact that a majority of Americans are not smart enough to ‘see the light’ makes solutions elusive. Great idea to eliminate the Dept. of Education. Keep us dumb.
in case you missed, the Dept of Ed is keeping us dumb. and the federal student loan is one of the dumbest ideas – unfettered loans for degrees of marginal value with universities raising prices faster than inflation
Jim: I think we are from different states and maybe soon different countries.
One of your best posts in memory. My only quibble is this insistence on the part of so many Americans claiming that the U.S. economy is #1 when in fact China’s GDP is at least 20% larger. Check out GDP (PPP) by country in Wikipedia with sourcing by the CIA, World Bank and IMF. Also, most prominent economists like Martin Wolff at the FT favor national GDP comparisons based on purchasing power parity and not foreign exchange methodology which you are using. Also, China now accounts for 40% of world industrial capacity, over 1/2 of the world’s STEM students and a leadership or parity position in most advanced high tech businesses. Better to acknowledge the strength of your competitors than to complacently label them as peasants like that fucking moron Vance did yesterday.
One could also describe picking people off the street exporting them without due process as ‘ administration sponsored human trafficking’ . An insightful exercise is to study the mafia and compare its structure and culture to the Don Don and team. Loyalty over capabilities ( and missing functional literacy in execution- eg ‘probation’ context and bio-diversity grants flagged for ‘ diversity’).
Professor, what are the chances that Trump & his cronies (and Putin & his cronies) are shorting the market & this tariff madness is just cover for the biggest scam in history?
Per NYT… Early Wednesday, during a period of intensely volatile trading, Mr. Trump wrote on social media, “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” Hours later, he announced a 90-day pause on many tariffs, sending the S&P 500 soaring more than 7 percent in just minutes. Wednesday was the best day for the S&P 500 since the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.
“The timing and scale of the call option purchases would suggest that an official of the Administration, or perhaps the President himself, provided friends or associates with a heads up that the announcement was happening,” Ms. Waters wrote.
SEC is investigating, although I’m sure nothing will come of it other than more insider trading…
I would bet my Social Security check on this .
The analogy of Nvidia and Mercedes is good, but the average Trumpite probably doesn’t understand those products. Make it simple. When I talk to people about the so-called “trade deficit”, I say the US is exporting diamonds and importing pooka shells. So yes, we have a deficit and that is a good thing! We are not getting “ripped off”, we are getting a massively good deal. Or, we were.
Excited to see how the Trump Moron Brigade responds to this post in a few minutes 🤣🤣
“Common Sense” relies on name calling–impressive. You might read what Edward ‘said’ 3 minutes after you….and then ‘get over yourself’….
I think this is more than a trade war and a realignment of the 80 year old Pax Americana. America can not continue to provide security for little to no cost for everyone. Lived in France long enough to see that there is no existential angst or drive while US Subsidized socialist govts. Allies so long as we take their imports and provide military and energy security. Ham handed and badly done so far but a reordering is at hand.